NGX Daily Market Summary: Tuesday, September 16, 2025

The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) All Share Index (ASI) edged -0.08% lower today, closing at 141,659.00, with the YTD return still an impressive 37.18%. However, the day was marked by notably thinner trading as market turnover fell by -47.53% to ₦12.12B and volume declined 27% to 391.3M units. Market breadth was almost balanced (0.96x), with 27 advancers and 28 decliners. CUSTODIAN AND ALLIED PLC led gainers after surging +9.94%, while MULTIVERSE PLC topped decliners, dropping -9.68%. Tellingly, a number of top-performing YTD names are exhibiting technical signals suggesting sentiment is shifting, while some lagging stocks are flashing early contrarian interest. Institutions continued to dominate value traded, but retail volumes remained significant, particularly in financials.

Key Market Trends

• Market Breadth: Slightly negative, with decliners (28) just outnumbering advancers (27); volume increased for 63 stocks but fell for 78.
• Dramatic Drop in Turnover: Market value traded fell -47.53%, signaling a potentially cautious or "wait-and-see” attitude following recent rallies.
• Notable Winners:
  • CUSTODIAN AND ALLIED PLC (CUSTODIAN): +9.94% (RSI: 52.95, MACD crossing up), price surging well above the 15D and 50D moving averages – continued bullish sentiment.
  • MULTIVERSE PLC (MULTIVERSE): +9.68% (RSI: 56.81), strong technicals but recent volatility persists.
  • E-TRANZACT (ETRANZACT): +9.45% (RSI: 65.7), one of the market’s YTD top gainers and massive +1633% spike in trading volume (highest among unusual volume stocks).
  • EUNISELL INTERLINKED PLC (EUNISELL): +9.45% after closing above its 15DMA—bullish crossover, but Beta slightly negative, suggesting modest market risk exposure.
• Biggest Losers:
  • GREENWICH ASSET ETF (GREENWETF): -9.99% (RSI: 47.18, deeply negative MACD), significant YTD and short-term underperformance.
  • DEAP CAPITAL (DEAPCAP): -5.56% now also appearing in the bearish 15DMA breakdown table, signaling persistent weakness despite a moderately high RSI (53.62).
  • FTN COCOA (FTNCOCOA): -4.84% and also below 15DMA—selling pressure remains.

Top 5 Year-To-Date (YTD) Gainers & Losers

Insights & Predictions

• Turnover Drop: A -47.53% drop in turnover on a barely lower ASI and nearly balanced breadth may signal consolidation—investors are pausing after strong YTD gains, possibly awaiting new catalysts.
• Advancers/Decliners: Slightly more decliners, but the gap is minimal, and gainers’ magnitude (many >9%) continues to suggest strong pockets of momentum, especially in financials and technical outperformers.
• Unusual Volumes:
  • ETRANZACT stands out—volume up +1633% vs its 90-Day avg, with strong price follow-through, suggesting ongoing institutional interest.
  • GUINNESS also saw a significant +586% surge, rising +6.92%: new institutional demand could push this further if sentiment persists.
  • UNILEVER and NSLTECH flagged with volumes up more than 150% – possible accumulation phase for both.
• Momentum Stocks
  • Bullish Momentum: EUNISELL, NEWGOLD ETF, JAIZBANK, and WAPIC – all closed above their 15DMA, indicating buying pressure. Notably, none have extreme RSI (>70), so potential for further upside remains.
  • Bearish Momentum: SOVRENINS, FIDELITYBK, UBA, FTNCOCOA and DEAPCAP all broke below their 15DMA—some overlap with top daily losers. Persistent declines in UBA and FIDELITYBK warrant close watch as both are bellwether financials.
  • Overlaps: FTNCOCOA and DEAPCAP appear both among top daily losers and bearish momentum stocks—a warning sign of accelerating downside.
• Technical Overbought/Oversold:
  • No trigger stocks today in extreme RSI zones (≥70 or ≤30). However, ETRANZACT is near, with RSI at 65.7 and clear MACD bullish cross, suggesting trend-following investors could still find opportunities as momentum builds.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION (CHAMPION BREW PLC):
  - RSI at 54.4 (neutral); -53.0% YTD and -4.26% today.
  - Bullish MACD crossover forms despite persistent YTD decline.
  - Suggests short-term buy interests are emerging in a battered stock. Contrarian traders could monitor for potential mean-reversion plays if volume increases.
• REGALINS:
  - YTD gain 117.5%, but today’s drop -4.40% and a high RSI (61.02) raise the possibility of profit-taking after a strong run.
• GREENWETF:
  - Deep YTD fall -56.84%, RSI only 47 (not oversold), continuing to show bearish MACD – avoids a dead-cat bounce for now.

Sector Heatmap

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Play Opportunities

*AFRIPRUD from context; not in today’s leaders but included for defensive monitoring.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Institutions accounted for 20.2% of institutional value traded today (₦1.13B), with top 5 institutional trade value concentrated in UBA, ZENITHBANK, MTNN, ARADEL, GTCO.
• UBA: Heaviest by institutional volume, but also among the day’s notable losers and with downward momentum – potential institutional rotation or short-term exit.
• GTCO/MTNN: Both feature strongly in both institutional and retail most-traded lists—points to wide institutional AND retail interest. Monitor closely for volatility spikes.

Stocks with High Dividend Yield in Bullish/Bearish Tables

• SOVRENINS has a 3.75% yield but appeared in the bearish momentum table, suggesting caution—yield chasers could see further price hits if the bearish trend persists.
• FIDELITYBK (5.48% yield, Beta 0.89) looks attractive fundamentally, but technical breakdown (price below 15DMA) warns of more near-term downside. Value investors may want to wait for technical stabilization before entry.
• UBA offers high yield (5.96%) but also below 15DMA and losing short-term momentum.

Trading Suggestions

• Bulls: ETRANZACT’s barrage of volume and multi-week outperformance, coupled with a bullish MACD and strong RSI, make it a prime candidate for trend followers—but watch for profit-taking as RSI nears 70.
• Bears: FTNCOCOA, DEAPCAP, GREENWETF are caught in falling price/volume momentum; short sellers or exit strategies may be prudent.
• Contrarians: Consider CHAMPION—unloved all year, but technicals are bottoming. Watch for confirmed reversal with higher volume and price holding above key moving averages.
• Monitor high dividend yield names with caution if in current technical downtrends; for long-term, accumulating in tranches may be prudent.
• Institutional concentration in ZENITHBANK, UBA, and GTCO means newsflow or large block trades here could drive near-term market direction.
• Avoid chasing momentum in low-volume, illiquid stocks; prefer names where technicals and volume support the move.

Trade Flow & Activity Summary

• Institutionals made up 54.7% of today’s market volume and a dominant 85.7% of market value, versus retail at 14.3%.
• Top 5 Institutional Trades: UBA, ZENITHBANK, MTNN, ARADEL, GTCO — all large caps, heavy in banking and telecoms.
• Top 5 Retail Trades: UBA, ZENITHBANK, MTNN, ACCESSCORP, GTCO — retail is crowding into the same set as institutions (especially financials), suggesting either heavy retail-to-institutional flows or echo trading.
• Pattern Insights:
  • Stocks with both retail and institutional heavy flow (UBA, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, MTNN) could see outsized volatility as both camps reposition.
  • This clustering increases the potential for sharp moves on news or technical triggers.

Hidden Insights: Several YTD leaders (ETRANZACT, MULTIVERSE) continue to attract volume, while technical weakness among some high-dividend financials presents a tactical caution for yield-seeking investors. With institutions dominating trade value but retail remaining active in the same large-cap names, volatility in the largest banks is likely to remain elevated. Monitor technical signals closely—momentum is shifting, and patience may be rewarded as clarity emerges.